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Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
July Week 4 AoI: Gulf of Mexico This, however looks more substantial. It's got nowhere to go but into a wall of 30-knot shear though. The shear throughout the Gulf is stiffling right now. -- SkyFury 22:28, 25 July 2007 (UTC) :It's impressive, but I don't see this doing anything, it's sheered and fast moving towards land, and none of the major tropical models pick up on anything. It's worth noting, though, that a non-tropical model shows a TS moving into the upper Texas coast in about 84hrs. Cyclone1(22:34 UTC -25/07/2007) ::Lokking very impressive lately! I'm surprised it's not an invest. Cyclone1(17:06 UTC -26/07/2007) :::Yeah, it almost looks like it has an eywall feature on the B/W IR. This thing looks pretty impressive for a storm that's under 30-knot shear. -- SkyFury 18:52, 26 July 2007 (UTC) ::::Less convection now, it seems to be dying a little bit, but it continues to become more organized (though very little organization is present, and, as the NHC states, it really hasn't dropped much in the way of surface pressure). It looks sheared. 68.100.190.56 23:33, 26 July 2007 (UTC) :::::I don't think the lack of development is terribly comforting to Texas right now. -- SkyFury 19:41, 27 July 2007 (UTC) ::::::Dying 68.100.190.56 21:20, 27 July 2007 (UTC) AoI: Major wave rolling off of Africa, models develop This is the wave that the GFS, CMC, UKMET, and the EURO have been developing. It's pretty big, and conditions ahead of it are pretty good. Cyclone1(01:24 UTC -27/07/2007) :GFS calling for an east coast approach/landfall around August 7-8. Unlikely, maybe. But it holds a plausible run aswell, keeping it at TS storm strength until it hits Puerto Rico. Looks like this may be the next one. And it's wave after wave after that, Welcome to the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Finally. Cyclone1(05:11 UTC -27/07/2007) ::Crud! That thing's enormous! Half of the wave is moderate convection!68.100.190.56 18:49, 27 July 2007 (UTC) :::Hmph! If it still has that much convection when it reaches the Windward Islands and has a low pressure with it, then I'll be interested. That's the stretch of Atlantic that seperates the threats from the posers. -- SkyFury 19:34, 27 July 2007 (UTC) ::::Lost a lot of it. Still looks very impressive on visible. Nice looking wave overall, I think it still has a decent chance of developing. 68.100.190.56 21:21, 27 July 2007 (UTC) :::::Dry air is nowhere to be found, SAL is way far north, and sheer isn't there. More than 75% chance of development in my book. Cyclone1(21:27 UTC -27/07/2007) Basically dead now... hmmm. 71.101.157.94 98L.INVEST East of the Bahamas. – NSLE 14:42, 28 July 2007 (UTC) :What?! Wow! We have 3 AoI's and not one of them became 98L. That's crazy. It's looking pretty good. Cyclone1(14:49 UTC -28/07/2007) FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH 11:30am TWO. Cyclone1(15:03 UTC -28/07/2007) :Ships make this mess a hurricane in 96 hours. We'll see what happens. -- WmE 15:26, 28 July 2007 (UTC) ::Nice (Edit: Very nice) 68.100.190.56 16:19, 28 July 2007 (UTC) :::Now this one is more interesting. It already has some banding. The air around it is kind of stable, but I think this one actually has a chance. The Gulf of Mexico thing doesn't look dead yet, either. All the models take it away from land, so we can root for this one I think. Chantal is overdue. -- SkyFury 17:15, 28 July 2007 (UTC) CMC calls for a hurricane and a Canadian impact. loop Cyclone1(17:43 UTC -28/07/2007) :GFDL does, too. Cyclone1(19:04 UTC -28/07/2007) ::Looks like the convection is dying a little, but it still seems to be going on strong. If (when) it makes it up the coast it will probably make it at least to TS strength (quite possibly hurricane, from what the models say). 68.100.190.56 23:34, 28 July 2007 (UTC) Convection should refire at night, which is now, so watch for that. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to have TD-3 tomorrow. Recon flight scheduled for around 4pm. Cyclone1(01:05 UTC -29/07/2007) TAFB dropped their forecast of a low forming, so the recon scheduled for tomorrow will most likely be canceled. I think 98L has a chance of developing, but right now it doesn't look like much. We'll just have to wait and see. Cainer91 01:54, 29 July 2007 (UTC) :This one looks pretty good. I thought I saw evidence in the IR loop of an LLCC forming but I could be hallucinating. The little spot of deep convection to the northwest of this Invest (Andrea territory) looks interesting. Convection has increased and it's a nice little fireball in the IR now. We'll see what sunrise reveals tomorrow. -- SkyFury 03:41, 29 July 2007 (UTC) ::Look excellent this morning. Danger area up. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif I don;t see any reason why recon would be canceled at this point. Cyclone1(12:01 UTC -29/07/2007) :::Better than ever! That looks very nice! Same as when we first saw it yesterday, except perhaps a little more organized. Still nothing bad in front of it either. I feel kind of sorry for Newfoundland. 68.100.190.56 13:08, 29 July 2007 (UTC) A TCFA has been issued. -- WmE 17:52, 29 July 2007 (UTC) :NRL is calling it "98L.LIMA". http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d178/RattleMan/NRLLima.png Of note, "Lima" is the code word for the letter "L" in the NATO phonetic alphabet. -- RattleMan 18:40, 29 July 2007 (UTC) ::Back as 98L.INVEST now 88.105.89.99 19:20, 29 July 2007 (UTC) :::My god, it's getting better and better (worse and worse)! 68.100.190.56 23:36, 29 July 2007 (UTC) ::::HEH? What are trying to say? The storm is looking better? Cyclone1(01:20 UTC -30/07/2007) I think this Invest has just about had it. Convection is dying off, environmental conditions are marginal, and the SST's are decreasing as it keeps going north. Unless a LLC can form in the next 6-12 hours, I imagine that this will just be another Invest to bury in the graveyard. Cainer91 02:36, 30 July 2007 (UTC) :I agree, I doubt Chantal will come from this, looks like the wave in the mid Atlantic will end up being our 99, though. Cyclone1(02:47 UTC -30/07/2007) AoI: Wave/Low in central Atlantic According to the TWD, a well defined low to mid level circulation is being observed with a tropical wave coming off the African coast. Moderate to strong convection. Might be interesting. Cyclone1(00:58 UTC -22/07/2007) :No offense, but I have yet to be interested. I don't see much in here -- SkyFury 00:26, 23 July 2007 (UTC) ::Yeah, not much to look at now, but if that sfc low hangs on until tomorrow, we might be looking at 98L. Cyclone1(00:41 UTC -23/07/2007) I think this is the system to watch. ---CWY2190talk 03:39, 23 July 2007 (UTC) :Looks like the LLC kinda fizzled out last night. Convection is still there, though. Cyclone1(15:59 UTC -23/07/2007) ::This is insane! GFS closes off a low, and takes it all the way to the US coast before recurving it! Cyclone1(23:26 UTC -23/07/2007) :::Uh huh. I'll believe it when I see it. -- SkyFury 14:52, 24 July 2007 (UTC) ::::Not looking so farfetched anymore Cyclone1(19:50 UTC -24/07/2007) Convection's dying. Cyclone1(15:17 UTC -25/07/2007) :As soon as I say convection's dying, it starts to refire around 30W and is looking a lot better. I love it. I'll shut up now. Cyclone1(15:50 UTC -25/07/2007) ::I still don't see anything worth looking at down there and I usually have a pretty good eye for tropical shenanegans. -- SkyFury 22:28, 25 July 2007 (UTC) :::What I find intersting is the GFS model develops a tropical depression in 48hrs, and has done so every run since yesterday. The CMC and UKMET also sorta hint at something. I'm sure it's not picking up on this wave though (the 35W one), it's latching onto one of the other ones behind it. We'll see in 48hrs. Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -25/07/2007) ::::Looks like a tiny hurricane, and IR and convection are fairly high. It's really, really small though. I don't remember anything like this yesterday, it popped up overnight. 68.100.190.56 21:25, 26 July 2007 (UTC) SFC low at 45W. We got one! Let's see if it pans out. Also major, MAJOR wave rolling off Africa. (see below) Cyclone1(01:22 UTC -27/07/2007) SFC low around 30W as well. That is the one to watch I think. ---CWY2190talk 05:36, 27 July 2007 (UTC) :I changed the header from "off Africa" to "central Atlantic" to avoid confusion between this one and the wave off of Africa now. Cyclone1(15:02 UTC -28/07/2007) ::I also bumped it up here because It's looking MUCH better. It could be our 99. Convection firing, LLCC looking possible. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html Cyclone1(01:25 UTC -30/07/2007) :::That looks really good (a lot better than 98L is nowadays). I woke up this morning, went to the central Atlantic and refreshed the page a few times to see if I was seeing things right. 68.100.190.56 11:11, 30 July 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC)